During the 2023 elections, Tinubu garnered a total of 8.8 million votes, segmented as follows: 2.3 million from the South West, 800,000 from the South South, a mere 127,000 from the South East, 2.7 million from the North West, 1.2 million from the North East, and 1.8 million from the North Central. Analysts believe that his real base of support stems primarily from the South West, where his core constituency contributed significantly to past victories, including those of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Buhari, despite his departure from the political scene, had a substantial backing, boasting 12 million voters independently. With Tinubu's 2023 results considered, it is estimated that Buhari's support helped Tinubu attract about 5 million additional votes, further complicating Tinubu's reelection strategy following Buhari's passing.
The report suggests that in a potential alliance with Kwankwaso—who received 1.5 million votes in the last election—Tinubu can expect to maximize their combined total to around 4 million votes. However, when accounting for the distribution of Buhari's loyalists, it seems a conservative projection estimates that they could reach a maximum of 7 million votes together, considering a 50-50 split of Buhari’s supporters between opposing factions.
Contrasted with the combined strength of opposition candidates Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who reportedly amassed 13 million votes in the 2023 elections, the outlook only worsens for Tinubu. If half of Buhari's voters sway towards Atiku and Obi, their 2027 total could soar to 16 million votes—creating an insurmountable lead.
Analysts note that this evaluation is cautious and does not factor in the growing disenchantment among some of Tinubu’s supporters, many of whom feel that they have not benefited significantly from his governance. Given the current political climate and the anticipated voter sentiment, the path to victory appears unclear for Tinubu.
As the political landscape evolves ahead of the next elections, the question remains: Can Tinubu and his potential allies formulate a strategy capable of overcoming the opposition's numerical advantages? With uncertainty looming, many are watching closely to see how these dynamics will unfold in the lead-up to 2027.