The die is cast. In 34 days, the 2019 presidential contest would have been won and lost by candidates seeking the mandate from 84 million Nigerian voters. In this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation; Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor and Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, report on the chances of the parties – especially the largest one – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – who given their spread have best chance of claiming the prize.
With the publication of voters’ register during the week by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), all is set for the February general elections with 84, 004, 084 million eligible Nigerians deciding the fate of an all-time record 18,400 candidates.
The breakdown includes 1,800 for 109 Senatorial seats; 2,600 to jostle for 360 House of Representatives slots; and 14,000 for 991 state House of Assembly offices.
The coming poll has some significant statistical changes – including being the first time the nation’s voter register will rise by close to 50 per cent (from 57million in 2015 to 84million in 2019). Also, 73 political parties are participating in the contest.
Another remarkable feature is the close monitoring of campaign finance which appears to have curtailed the unrestrained splashing of cash that was the case four years ago.
Already, all candidates are in the field canvassing for votes. Every zone is now important going by the likely haul of votes available to candidates. The zonal summary of registered voters is as follows: 12,841, 279 (South-South); 16, 292, 212 (South-West); 10, 057, 130 (South-East); 13,366,070 (North-Central); 20,158,100 (North-West); and 11, 289, 293 (North-East).
Irrespective of the benchmarks adopted, the battlegrounds remain the Northern axis with 44,813,463 votes and the South-West having 16,292,212 votes. Out of the nation’s 84,004,084 eligible voters, the North and the South-West control 61,105,675: whatever happens in these zones could be decisive.
Not surprisingly, the frontrunners – APC and PDP – have been trying to outwit each other from state to state.
The last year witnessed a flurry of movements of key political figures across party lines. Some of these individuals are very influential and could have a say in determining the outcome come February 16.
However, on-the-ground assessments by our correspondents in different states suggest that because of these defections and other local factors, we may see some changes in the electoral map.
The main contest is expected to pitch Muhammadu Buharu of the APC against long-standing aspirant, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) has former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke and former minister Professor Jerry Gana at war as to who the real candidate is.
Other notable candidates include businessman and former activist, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim of the People’s Trust pasrty, who might have a decent showing in the North-Central zone after being endorsed by a clutch of Middle-Belt leaders.
Former Central Bank of Nigeria Deputy Governor, Professor Kingsley Moghalu of Young Progressives Party (YPP), Fela Durotoye of Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress and Dr. Oby Ezekwesili of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), have also been vocal on the hustings. They may have added colour to the campaigns but would probably end up as footnotes.
As the countdown begins to Election Day, these are our projections regarding likely outcomes in the presidential election from state to state, if the polls were held today.
NORTH EAST ZONE
BAUCHI STATE
Ordinarily, this is an electoral fortress for Buhari who garnered 931,598 votes in the state in 2015 compared with a paltry 86,085 votes received by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. But the coalition which brought Governor Mohammed Abubakar to power during the last poll collapsed – leading to a major crack in APC and the dwindling of the party’s fortunes.
Until Buhari and the APC pulled a fast one, the state was almost lost to the PDP going by massive defections from the ruling party to the opposition. Among those who left was the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara.
Armed with an impressive war-chest, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed, also revved up the PDP in the state with the choice of Baba Tella (a grassroots politician) as his running mate for the governorship race. The ex-minister, who is from Bauchi South Senatorial District like the governor might split the votes from the zone.
Other factors in favour of the Bauchi PDP are Dogara (who commands the strong following among Christians and minorities in the state) and a former Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Abdul Ningi.
However, in the last three weeks, Buhari and APC have embarked on a salvage mission which is paying off for the party. Apart from wooing ex-Governor Isa Yuguda to the ruling party, the President has also courted a former National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Sen. Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu. The major heavyweights in Bauchi politics are back in APC to give more bite to the campaign of the party. This is the first time Yuguda and Mu’azu will join forces politically to campaign for the same candidate and party.
But the fate of APC depends on more reconciliation because some of its stalwarts like ex-Minister Yakubu Lame, Capt. Bala Jibrin and others might lead internal revolt and deliver protest votes against Governor Abubakar next month. A foretaste of wrangling within APC happened on Monday and Tuesday in Azare and Misau (Katagum Emirate) when the governor’s campaign entourage was pelted with stones by angry citizens.
Except for the Emir of Katagum, most of the Emirs in the state are reportedly unhappy with the governor although they usually pretend and tag along with him. Yet these royal fathers wield enormous political influence.
Following realignment of forces in the state, Buhari and APC may still retain the grip and the governor might survive his re-election campaign by a whisker.
The underdog in the race in Bauchi State is the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) which has a credible candidate in its gubernatorial nominee, Prof. Muhammed Ali Pate, who was a former Minister of Health. Pate is creating an unprecedented wave in the state and he might win the governorship race on merit if Bauchi voters live up to their revolutionary inclination.
Verdict: Battleground
BORNO STATE
In spite of the insurgency, Borno is certainly a stronghold of the APC and President Buhari. The people of the state have undiluted loyalty to Buhari and his commitment to the war against Boko Haram has strengthened their political bond with him.
The humble and unifying disposition of Governor Kashim Shettima in governing the state have also left APC more united for a straightforward victory at the polls. Initially, there were fears that the imposition of a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum as the APC governorship candidate might create crisis, but the governor managed the stakeholders with maturity.
The return of a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC, which he assisted to form, has been a game-changer which has left PDP in quandary.
The seemingly intractable crisis in opposition party in the state has affected its fortunes. Since the ill-fated governorship primaries of the party, it has broken into two factions led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively. The PDP is in not only bad shape to promote its governorship candidate, Mohammed Alkali Imam, it is yet to win the confidence of the masses of the war-torn state. The defection of the highly-respected ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) from PDP to APC has made the victory of APC a fait accompli.
There are 2,315,956 votes available in the state and APC may win with landslide.
Verdict: Buhari
YOBE STATE
A politically homogenous enclave, Yobe State has been traditionally progressive since 1999. It has always voted against PDP despite its political transformation from All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and APC. The smooth transition of power laid down by the first civilian governor of the state, Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim has helped in consolidating its progressive credentials. The Kanuri-Fulani collaboration has made the state impregnable for the opposition. But the Kanuri have been governing.
