NiMet’s forecast highlights variations in the onset of rainfall across different regions. Early rainfall is anticipated in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba. In contrast, Borno State is expected to experience a delayed start to the rainy season.
The cessation of rainfall is projected to occur earlier than usual in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger. Conversely, Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna are likely to witness a delayed end to the season. Additionally, Borno, Yobe, and parts of Niger may experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
While most parts of Nigeria are expected to receive normal annual rainfall compared to long-term averages, some regions will see significant deviations. Above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory. On the other hand, below-normal rainfall is predicted for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun.
NiMet has also warned of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun during the March-to-May season. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, and Delta, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara.
During the June-July-August season, severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days are anticipated in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.
The Little Dry Season (LDS), commonly referred to as the "August Break," is expected to begin in late July and will be particularly severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo. The duration of this dry period could range between 28 and 40 days. A milder effect is projected for Ondo, Kwara, and Edo.
Daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than the long-term average across most of the country from January to March and in May. This warming trend could have implications for agriculture, water resources, and public health.
NiMet has cautioned that sporadic rains in southern regions should not be mistaken for the official start of the rainy season. Farmers and others whose livelihoods depend on rainfall are advised to consult the agency’s detailed predictions for accurate guidance on planting and other agricultural activities.
The 2026 weather outlook presents a mixed picture, with some regions facing extended rainfall, others experiencing dry spells, and varying temperatures across the country. Stakeholders, particularly in agriculture, are encouraged to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly to mitigate potential risks and maximize productivity.
