According to the forecast, a staggering 14,118 communities across 266 local government areas are at risk of high flooding. The affected states span the entire nation, including Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara. Additionally, 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states—excluding Ekiti—are projected to experience moderate flooding, while minimal flood incidents are expected in 923 communities across 24 states.
The timeline for these risks is equally alarming. High flood risks are predicted to occur between April and November 2026, with varying intensities across different periods. For instance, 9,021 communities in 188 LGAs are likely to face severe flooding between April and June, while the numbers rise to 14,158 communities in 263 LGAs from July to September. The threat persists into October and November, with 11,575 communities in 224 LGAs remaining vulnerable.
The impacts of these floods are expected to be devastating, affecting agriculture, livelihoods, livestock, infrastructure, and the environment. Flash and urban flooding are also anticipated in major cities such as Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin-Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Nguru, Onitsha, Oshogbo, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Warri, and Yola. These urban floods will likely result from heavy rainfall, poor drainage management, and inadequate flood resilience structures.
Coastal and riverine flooding is another concern, particularly in states like Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo. Rising sea levels and tidal surges could disrupt fishing activities, wildlife habitats, and river navigation, further compounding the economic and ecological challenges.
Professor Utsev emphasized the importance of early preparedness, stating that timely information can save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce economic losses. He urged state governments, local authorities, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to review the AFO’s advisories and implement necessary mitigation strategies. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), which spearheaded the report, reiterated its commitment to providing evidence-based predictions to guide national and subnational responses.
The minister’s call to action highlights the need for collaborative efforts to address the impending crisis. With climate change exacerbating weather patterns, the 2026 flood outlook serves as a critical reminder of the vulnerabilities facing Nigeria’s water management systems. Stakeholders are encouraged to prioritize smart water resource management, invest in drainage infrastructure, and adopt community-based resilience programs to avert the worst outcomes.
As the nation braces for another flood season, the government’s warning underscores the intersection of environmental challenges and socioeconomic stability. The coming months will test the effectiveness of preparedness measures and the collective will to safeguard vulnerable communities from nature’s fury.
